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A bayesian estimation of the economic effects of the Common Fisheries Policy on the Galician fleet: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

2019 , Colla-De-Robertis, Esteban , Da-Rocha, José-María , García-Cutrín, Javier , Gutiérrez, María-José , Prellezo, Raúl

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north-west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU Atlantic southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986–2012, fishing opportunities would have increased, leading to an increase in labour hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%.

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The productivity cost of sovereign default: evidence from the European debt crisis

2015 , Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge , Colla-De-Robertis, Esteban , Da-Rocha, José-María

We calibrate the cost of sovereign defaults using a continuous time model, where government default decisions may trigger a change in the regime of a stochastic TFP process. We calibrate the model to a sample of European countries from 2009 to 2012. By comparing the estimated drift in default relative to that in no-default, we find that TFP falls in the range of 3.70–5.88 %. The model is consistent with observed falls in GDP growth rates and subsequent recoveries and illustrates why fiscal multipliers are small during sovereign debt crises. ©Economic Theory