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Pink Tide or Pink Mirage? Civil Society Networks and Democratic Mobilization in Mexico's 2024 Presidential Elections
(Wiley, 2026)
Sainz Martínez, Bernardo
Mexico's 2022–2024 Marea Rosa (Pink Tide) movement rose rapidly in response to growing democratic backsliding under President López Obrador. With mass protests defending electoral institutions and a pivotal role in unifying opposition parties ahead of the 2024 election, the movement seemed poised to reshape the political landscape. Yet despite its visibility and scale, the Marea Rosa ultimately had limited electoral effects. Drawing on social movement theory and civil society literature, this article argues that the movement's elite-driven, top-down structure fostered strong-bonding social capital but failed to cultivate bridging ties beyond its core base. The analysis combines process tracing, in-depth interviews with key organizers, and a social network analysis based on X (formerly Twitter) to trace how centralized coordination, narrow demographic reach, and a bounded framing strategy curtailed the movement's capacity to broaden support or realign the electorate. While Marea Rosa succeeded in mobilizing discontent, it lacked the participatory innovation and inclusiveness characteristic of more transformative civic movements. The findings contribute to debates on civil society in backsliding democracies by highlighting the tradeoffs of elite-led mobilization; while effective in signaling resistance and constraining authoritarian reforms, such movements often lack the inclusiveness and participatory innovation required to reshape electoral outcomes. © The author © Wiley.

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