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Ampudia-Márquez, Nora C.
El peso como moneda global y su financiarización. Limitaciones para las políticas monetaria y cambiaria.
Mexico’s Exchange Rate Policy Restrictions on a High Volatility Environment
2020
,
Ampudia-Márquez, Nora C.
,
Luis Raul Rodríguez-reyes
En este documento se analiza la evolución del peso mexicano como moneda global, en el contexto de las políticas monetarias no convencionales de los países desarrollados instrumentadas para enfrentar los efectos de la crisis internacional de 2008. El ascenso del peso mexicano como moneda global es parte de su proceso de financiarización, así como de la integración comercial. Dicho ascenso cambió la dinámica de la volatilidad cambiaria, ya que actualmente esta no se explica por los desequilibrios tradicionales de cuenta corriente y el déficit fiscal, sino que está determinada por el carry trade provocado por la innovación de procesos financieros en los que predomina el elemento especulativo. Ello ha reducido la efectividad de las políticas monetaria y cambiaria del país.
2018
,
Ampudia-Márquez, Nora C.
,
Luis Raul Rodríguez-reyes
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Such trading volume does not match the relative size of the Mexican economy or its international trade volume. This intensified trading activity is mostly related with the free exchange features of the MXN, as it does not have barriers or taxes that hinder its exchange with other major currencies, and its liquidity. Both features transformed the MXN from a free trading currency of a relatively medium size country into the Latin America financial asset of reference in international markets, particularly in its parity with the US dollar. In this research paper we study the USD-MXN exchange rate volatility, from the policy-maker perspective, and the limits imposed to the central bank to fight speculative attacks towards Mexican currency, as most trading on such parity occurs overseas, away from the country’s regulatory reach. This analysis is conducted taking into account the use of the Mexican currency as a hedge for falling prices in commodities’ international prices, mainly with the use of derivatives on the USD-MXN exchange rate. In this new environement, the source of the exchange rate volatility is not related to flawed economic fundamentals or political uncertainty, as it was in the last decades of the XX century, but, volatility now comes from the existence of financial speculators and other agents that heavily rely on the Mexican peso, mainly in the form of derivatives, to operate in international financial markets.