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The Importance of Health and Social Protection Assets in the Economic Welfare of Households in Mexico

2023 , De la Torre-Diaz, Lorena , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román , Rivas Aceves, Salvador

This paper seeks determines how the possession of health and social protection assets affects the probability of a household belonging to a given quintile of a proposed asset ownership index. An ordered logistic regression model was constructed. As a dependent variable, the quintile of each household was used according to the index. This research is based on 48 explanatory variables from the 2020 National Income and Expenses Survey. It confirms that health and social protection assets are relevant in the location of households in a quintile according to its socioeconomic condition. Estimated marginal effects and predictions for every quintile, show that the effect of the assets varies according to the quintile. Ownership of specific assets increase the likelihood of belonging to the higher quintiles. The possession of a voluntary pension fund is the most relevant asset. The empirical results obtained may contribute to design more efficient inequality-reducing public policies by promoting its acquisition and thereby encouraging social mobility. Main limitations of this research are related with the small number of health and social-protection related variables in the survey. ©Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas

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Financial risk of increasing the follow-up period of breast cancer treatment currently covered by the Social Protection System in Health in México

2018 , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román , Marmolejo Saucedo, José Antonio , Tavera-Martínez, Sonia

Background: The objective of this work is to estimate the financial impact of increasing the monitoring period for breast cancer, which is financed by the Sistema de Protección Social en Salud (SPSS—Social Protection System in Health). Methods: A micro-simulation model was developed to monitor a cohort of patients with breast cancer, and also an estimation was made on the probability of surviving the monitoring period financed by the SPSS. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, the maximum expected cost was estimated to broaden such monitoring. Morbimortality information of the Ministry of Health and cases of breast cancer treated by the SPSS were used.

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Nature-inspired meta-heuristics approaches for charging plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

2019 , Vasant, Pandian , Marmolejo Saucedo, José Antonio , Litvinchev, Igor , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román

Currently, there is a remarkable focus on green technologies for taking steps towards more use of renewable energy sources within the sector of transportation and also decreasing pollution. At this point, employment of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) needs sufficient charging allocation strategy, by running smart charging infrastructures and smart grid systems. In order to daily usage of PHEVs, daytime charging stations are required and at this point, only an appropriate charging control and a management of the infrastructure can lead to wider employment of PHEVs. In this study, four swarm intelligence based optimization techniques: particle swarm optimization (PSO), gravitational search algorithm (GSA), accelerated particle swarm optimization, and hybrid version of PSO and GSA (PSOGSA) have been applied for the state-of-charge optimization of PHEVs. In this research, hybrid PSOGSA has performed very well in producing better results than other stand-alone optimization techniques. © 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Part of Springer Nature.

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Proposal for a comprehensive environmental key performance index of the green supply chain

2020 , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román

The consideration of environmental objectives in the design of green supply chains creates the need to build a set of key performance indicators for monitoring and control. There is a set of generally accepted environmental indicators for monitoring environmental objectives in the supply chain. However, so far these indicators have been disconnected from the operational and economic indicators of the supply chain. It is important to consider these elements in the integral performance of a green supply chain. The present work is a proposal of a general index of environmental performance that includes operational, financial, and environmental aspects that allow monitoring the integral performance of the supply chain by applying Principal Component Analysis of mixed data. © 2020, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

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Selecting the Distribution System using AHP and Fuzzy AHP Methods

2024 , Saucedo-Martínez, Jania Astrid , Salais-Fierro, Tomás Eloy , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román , Marmolejo Saucedo, José Antonio

In this research, we present a supporting tool for decision making by designing a distribution system for a trading company of supplies for the welding industry in Mexico. The case study encompasses a distribution system with shortage problems and poor fleet capacity. To address these problems, improvement options were grouped into three possible scenarios through a third-party logistics (3PL) service. Furthermore, for the evaluation and selection of one of the scenarios, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology was proposed integrating fuzzy logic as a tool for decision making, including factors of uncertainty and subjectivity as well as a comparison with traditional AHP obtaining the best scenario, meeting the requirements of the company, and showing potential improvements in the desired service level for its distribution system. © 2024 Springer Nature

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Prices of Mexican Wholesale Electricity Market: An Application of Alpha-Stable Regression

2019 , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román , Marmolejo Saucedo, José Antonio , Brenda Retana-Blanco

This paper presents a proposal to estimate prices in the Mexican Wholesale Electric Market, which began operations in February 2016, which is why it moves from a scheme with a single bidder to a competitive market. There are particularities in the case of the Mexican market, the main one being the gradual increase in the number of competitors observed until now and, on the other hand, the geographic and technical characteristics of the electric power generation. The observed prices to date show great fluctuations in the observed data due to diverse aspects; among the stems we can mention the own seasonality of the demand of electrical energy, the availability of fuel, the problems of congestion in the electrical network, as well as other risks such as natural hazards. For the above, it is relevant in a market context to have a price estimation as accurate as possible for the decision-making of supply and demand. This paper proposes a methodology for the generation of electricity price estimation through the application of stable alpha regressions, since the behavior of the electric market has shown the presence of heavy tails in its price distribution. © 2019 by the authors, Sustainability.

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A proposal for the supply chain design : a digitization approach

2018 , Marmolejo Saucedo, José Antonio , Retana-Blanco, Brenda , Pedraza-Arroyo, Erika , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román

The logistics network of an automotive company in Mexico, was analyzed to propose a better logistics network in the country to improve delivery times to customers. The network design considers elements of digitization of Greenfield Analysis and Network Optimization processes. Taking into account the information given by the company, it was possible to obtain optimal scenarios for better operation, which involved the construction of distribution centers throughout Mexico. © 2020 Jose Antonio Marmolejo-Saucedo et al., licensed to EAI.

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Designing a resilient supply chain: An approach to reduce drug shortages in epidemic outbreaks

2020 , Lozano-Díez, José Antonio , Marmolejo Saucedo, José Antonio , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román

Introduction: Supply network design is a long-studied topic that has evolved to address disruptive situations. The risk of supply chain disruption leads to the development of resilient supply chains that are capable of reacting effectively. Objectives: In the context of public health, drug supply networks face shortage challenges in many situations, such as current epidemic outbreaks such as COVID-19. Drug shortages can occur due to manufacturing problems, lack of infrastructure, and immediate reaction mechanisms. Methods: The case study is solved with anyLogistix optimization and simulation software. RESULTS: We present the results of a hypothetical study on the impact of COVID-19 on a regional supply network. The results of this research are intended to be the basis for the design of resilient supply chains in epidemic outbreaks. Conclusión: Drug providers should consider strategies to prevent or reduce the impact of shortages as well as disruption spreads. ©2020 José Antonio Lozano Díez, José Antonio Marmolejo Saucedo & Roman Rodríguez Aguilar, licensed to European Alliance for Innovation.

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Structural Dynamics and disruption events in Supply Chains using Fat Tail Distributions

2019 , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román , Marmolejo Saucedo, José Antonio

The analysis of structural dynamics in a supply chain requires robust methods for the modeling of disruption events that can be faced. Statistical modeling, the machine learning application and access to large amounts of data require much more realistic models to manage risk in the supply chain. This study proposes a statistical methodology for the modeling of disruption events in the supply chain with heavy tailed distributions, which will allow the construction of models more closely linked to reality for risk management in the supply chain. © 2019, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Dynamics of prices and consumption of unhealthy foods as a monitoring tool of the strategy against obesity in Mexico

2020 , Lozano-Díez, José Antonio , Rodríguez Aguilar, Román

Introduction: Mexico faces an epidemic of overweight and obesity, in 2018 75% of adults were overweight or obese. This condition as a risk factor generates a significant financial impact in the Health Sector. In response, the National Strategy for Prevention and Control of Overweight, Obesity, and Diabetes was implemented in 2013, which included as one of its pillars the implementation of fiscal policies. As part of fiscal policy, taxes were established on sugary drinks and foods with high-calorie content. Seven years after the implementation of the Strategy to control the epidemic of overweight and obesity, there have been some results. However, it is necessary to continue working and especially monitoring the performance of the different actions implemented. Objectives: Propose an analytical intelligence model for monitoring the fiscal policies implemented to control overweight and obesity in Mexico. Methods: The proposed analytical intelligence model considers three methodological bases, a) price index of healthy and unhealthy foods through Principal Component Analysis, b) volatility measurement of both baskets through a GARCH model and c) monitoring of consumption patterns through household income and expenditure surveys. Results: The main results identified a price differential between the baskets of products healthy and unhealthy, especially at the beginning of the fiscal policy. Healthy products have higher price volatility than unhealthy products and according to consumption patterns, on average Mexican households spend 30% of their food expenditure on unhealthy products. Conclusion: To strengthen fiscal actions to control overweight and obesity, it is recommended to have monitoring systems for the dynamic design and implementation of public policies. Although taxes have reduced in some grade the consumption of unhealthy products, it is necessary to promote the affordability of healthy products, helping to improve the diet of Mexican households. © 2019 José Antonio Lozano Díez & Roman Rodríguez Aguilar, licensed to European Alliance for Innovation.