A bayesian estimation of the economic effects of the Common Fisheries Policy on the Galician fleet: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

Colla-De-Robertis, Esteban; Da-Rocha, José-María; García-Cutrín, Javier; Gutiérrez, María-José; Prellezo, Raúl

doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.10.013

A bayesian estimation of the economic effects of the Common Fisheries Policy on the Galician fleet: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

Journal

Ocean & Coastal Management

ISSN

0964-5691

Date Issued

2019

Author(s)

Da-Rocha, José-María

García-Cutrín, Javier

Gutiérrez, María-José

Prellezo, Raúl

Type

Resource Types::text::journal::journal article

DOI

10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.10.013

URL

https://scripta.up.edu.mx/handle/20.500.12552/1715

Abstract

What would have happened if a relatively looser fisheries policy had been implemented in the European Union (EU)? Using Bayesian methods a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated to assess the impact of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on the economic performance of a Galician (north-west of Spain) fleet highly dependant on the EU Atlantic southern stock of hake. Our counterfactual analysis shows that if a less effective CFP had been implemented during the period 1986–2012, fishing opportunities would have increased, leading to an increase in labour hours of 4.87%. However, this increase in fishing activity would have worsened the profitability of the fleet, dropping wages and rental price of capital by 6.79% and 0.88%, respectively. Welfare would also be negatively affected since, in addition to the increase in hours worked, consumption would have reduced by 0.59%.