Ortiz Arango, Francisco

Main Affiliation

Preferred name

Official Name

Ortiz Arango, Francisco

ORCID

0000-0003-2707-4459

Researcher ID

ACO-1881-2022

Scopus Author ID

55601611100

Now showing 1 - 10 of 24

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Reconstructing household financial well-being; The case of Mexican households
(Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración, 2025)
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Mopya Ponce, Claudine
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Through the application of Bayesian Network methodology, this study delves into household financial well-being in Mexico over the 2018 – 2022 period. The foundational scenario involved vital variables such as poverty-induced vulnerability, household type, education of the household head, financial education, income source (i.e., formal or informal sector employment), financial asset management, and savings as the main variables influencing household financial well-being. Subsequently, each variable was extrapolated to measure its impact on the focal point of interest. Results show that income from informal sector employment, education of the household head, financial education, and savings emerge as statistically significant factors exerting the greatest influence on household financial well-being. Economic policy recommendations to address these influential factors are discussed. ©The authors © Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Contaduría y Administración.
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Fronteras en economía financiera
(Universidad Panamericana, 2012)
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López Herrera,Francisco
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FRANCISCO ORTIZ ARANGO;350353
Esta investigación se basa en el empleo de algunas técnicas matemáticas empleadas en la mecánica cuántica, como la integral de trayectoria de Feynman, el principio de incertidumbre de Heisenberg o la teoría espectral, para poder plantear y resolver problemas como el cálculo del valor de opciones con doble barrera, opciones asiáticas o resolver problemas de valuación de tasas cortas de interés mediante modelos como el Vasicek.
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Las finanzas de los hogares mexicanos: análisis con Redes Bayesianas
(2021)
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Cabrera Llanos, Agustín Ignacio
El bienestar de los hogares está ligado en gran parte al desarrollo de los mercados financieros. El estudio de las finanzas de los hogares analiza las formas en que estos utilizan instrumentos financieros para satisfacer sus necesidades y objetivos; este análisis representa un gran desafío debido a la escasa información estadística y la interrelación entre las variables consideradas. En este trabajo, pionero en el uso de las redes bayesianas en este campo, utilizamos de manera conjunta las finanzas tradicionales y las conductuales. Medimos la probabilidad de prevalencia de estabilidad financiera de los hogares en México; obtenemos un resultado base y posteriormente, al generar distintos escenarios, descubrimos que las variables más determinantes son el manejo del crédito y la conformación de los hogares. Estos resultados subrayan la importancia de promover iniciativas de educación financiera en los distintos niveles, modalidades y subsistemas educativos. © 2021 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. In today's economy, the well-being of households is considered to be linked mainly to the development of financial markets. The field of household finance analyzes how households use financial instruments to satisfy their needs and achieve objectives. This analysis represents a significant challenge due to scarce statistical information and the interrelation among the variables involved. We follow two aspects: Traditional and behavioral finance. This paper pioneers the use of Bayesian networks in the field. A model measuring the probability of prevalence of financial stability of households in Mexico is used; a baseline result is obtained and then, while generating different scenarios, we discover that credit management and household composition are the most determining variables. These results underscore the importance of promoting different financial education initiatives at different educational levels, modalities, and subsystems. © 2021 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.
Scopus© Citations 2 14 2
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Transmisión de precios futuros de maíz del Chicago Board of Trade al mercado spot mexicano
(2017)
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Montiel Guzmán, Alma Nelly
En México, el uso del programa de coberturas de la Agencia de Servicios a la Comercialización y Desarrollo de Mercados Agropecuarios (ASERCA) es un instrumento que ha sido utilizado por los productores de maíz (principalmente blanco) para la adquisición de productos derivados en el Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), cuyo subyacente es el maíz amarillo calidad US#2. En un entorno de alta volatilidad en los precios del maíz, los precios del CBOT deberían ajustarse con los precios spot domésticos para incentivar a los productores mexicanos a participar en el programa, sin embargo, mediante un análisis de volatilidad estocástica multivariante durante el periodo de 2007 a 2012, se mostró que el precio de mercado de futuros de maíz no se encuentra fuertemente relacionado con los precios registrados en algunos estados del país, por lo que se puede inferir que la cobertura mediante el programa ASERCA no cumple adecuadamente con su propósito de proteger a los agricultores nacionales que siembran maíz blanco, a pesar de que su uso se ha incrementado.
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Leveraged exchange trated funds’s emerging markets: A practical application of statistical arbitrage based on cointegration
(2017)
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Urrutia-Martínez, Daniel Ulises
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Flores-Méndez, Alejandro
Pair Trading is a Neutral Market Strategy descendant of Statistical Arbitrage. Its objective is to identify pairs of assets whose historical prices or variations have high correlation between them. To attain this, pairs trading takes advantage of overvalued assets sales and purchases undervalued assets. To identify the goal pair, we performed back-testing using historical log returns (from December 31, 2008 through April 16, 2013). With the goal pair identified we run the daily strategy using historical adjusted at closed price data and historical log returns (from December 31, 2010 through September 11, 2015). Herein, we consider two inverse Exchange Trade Funds versus benchmark EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) index. The objective of this work is to demonstrate that automated trading strategy built under the co-integration approach in moving windows of 60 and 180 days is able to beat a buy and hold strategy on the EEM benchmark. © 2017, ASERS Publishing House. All rights reserved.
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Profitability Using Second-Generation Bioethanol in Gasoline Produced in Mexico
(2021)
Bautista Herrera, Adrián
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Álvarez Álvarez, José
Gasoline produced in Mexico by the productive company of the state Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) mainly uses oil-derived ethers as oxygenators to reach the Mexican Regulatory ‘Frame-work’s octane number. An alternative to complying with these regulations could be to use bioethanol as an oxygenate. However, as a gasoline component, this could affect ‘Mexico’s food markets since sugar cane, and grains are the primary inputs for local production. The main objective of this study is to evaluate whether the use of bioethanol, produced from corn stubble, as an additive in gasoline produced by Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) is profitable in Mexico, from the perspective of the evaluation of the supply chain and the finances. The purpose of this work is to contribute to the definition of the advantages and limitations for the existence of a second-generation bioethanol market produced from Lignocellulosic corn biomass and integrated into the gasoline market of national production in Mexico. The work starts with theoretical research to define the use of corn stubble as raw material, set up on its availability and feasibility determined based on a geographic information system (GIS), through the use of the agricultural production forecast approach, as well as the integration of costs and financial analysis. The results show that corn stubble bioethanol production is technically viable, but the production cost is not competitive yet. Although its price is not yet competitive compared to the imported price, using a fiscal incentive scheme and considering the decrease in energy dependence, it would be feasible to produce it in Mexico. © 2021 by the authors.
Scopus© Citations 10 9 2
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Competition between agricultural foods and biofuels: Referees' response to "The nonlinear relation between biofuels and food prices"
(2017)
Venegas-Martínez, Francisco
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The nonlinear relation between biofuels and food prices", written by Cruz Aké (2017), several issues were left out by the author: 1) a comparison of the paper's results with traditional non-linear econometric analysis, as Markov switching regime models; 2) a comparative analysis of the long-run relationship between biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) consumption and its demand determinants, namely, competitive goods, their prices, world's GDP (economic activity) and climate phenomena, and 3) an explanation for the volatility regarding non-linearities in the biofuels consumption and its determinants. Under this framework to complement Cruz Aké's (2017) work, we perform a traditional cointegration analysis to assess the impact of the long-run components of the biofuel demand. We find a significative statistical consistency in the three cointegration equations from a six-equation system. Moreover, we find two volatility regimes of the biofuel consumption, wich is also consistent with the empirical evidence from Cruz Aké's (2017) paper. Although Cruz Aké (2017) contributes to the current discussion on the subject matter, it remains to consider, more carefully, other essential issues that invitied us to a deeper academic debate: 1) the distribution of innovations that drives the biofuel consumption and its price may not be Student's t nor a Generalize Extreme Value (GEV) distribution; 2) the stochastic process that guides the biofuels consumption and its price may not be stable over time, and 3) the cointegration analysis may be done by assuming fractional cointegration. Finally, it is worth noticing that Cruz Aké's (2017) paper may be extended in different ways such as: 1) the long-run sustainability of the biofuels consumption; 2) the effect of the agricultural foods and fuel prices volatilities on the economic welfare, and 3) the effect of changes in agricultural foods and energy prices on poor people. Needless to say, all the above stated points encourage to a wider and deeper debate.
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Pronóstico de precios de petróleo: una comparación entre modelos garch y redes neuronales diferenciales
(2017)
The aim of this paper is to show the advantages of the use of neural networks differentials (rnd) as an efficient alternative method in calculating the forecasts of future prices of financial assets, for which a comparison is made with models of the garch family, to carry out the forecast of future closing price of crude oil barrels, types West Texas International and Brent. The results shows that the use of rnd has essentially the same accuracy as the values obtained with the tgarch (1,1) model and are superior to those obtained by the garch (1,1) model to calculate price forecasts barrels of crudes Brent and wti respectively during the period of description, from January 2, 2013 to February 24, 2015 and the forecast period from February 25 to March 10, 2015. However, the effort made to obtain such results with the family of garch models is significantly higher than when using the rnd, this supports the proposal to use the rnd as a reliable alternative method in the analysis of time series.
Scopus© Citations 2 27 2
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Project Valuation of a Distribution Centre of an Auxiliary Rail Freight Terminal: Using Real Options with Fuzzy Logic and Binomial Trees
(2016)
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Cabrera Llanos, Agustín Ignacio
This paper presents the financial evaluation of the extension of an auxiliary rail freight terminal to integrate it to a logistics platform (LP). This investment phase is focused on building a distribution center (CEDI), as part of a comprehensive project of high commercial and strategic impact for Mexico. The project evaluation is done using binomial trees for the valuation of an American type real call option, incorporating the expected volatility over the expected cash flows, in order to determine the benefit of postponing the project three years. In addition, to complement this real option valuation, we incorporate the fuzzy logic theory in the process of assigning probabilities to the branches of tree. The value of the American type real call option to postpone the project three years is 30.37% of investment, while the value of real option, using fuzzy logic is 29.94% of investment, this is a better result. © 2016, ASERS Publishing House. All rights reserved.
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La popularidad de las marcas y su valor económico en el marco de las finanzas corporativas: un análisis de aprendizaje máquina
(2022)
Morales González, Víctor Miguel
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Over time, the brand has played a significant role in the business sphere, the perception of commercial image, and added value. This study is focused on exploring the components of brand value from a diagnosis and machine learning techniques to develop a series of models associated with the dimensions of perceived brand value from a more current concept of popularity. The machine learning methodology prioritizes prediction over inference. Unlike classical statistics, it does not impose a specification or a theory, where a model is required to be specified; this represents an alternative dynamic way to understand how one of the most critical resources of companies is present in the market, which undoubtedly has repercussions on the financial and risk management of the company. The results obtained through three different machine learning techniques show that the eleven variables proposed in the study positively influence brand popularity with different intensities. © 2023 Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. All rights reserved.
Scopus© Citations 1 43 2

Ortiz Arango, Francisco

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